European policy, God assisted the US dollar, refreshed high gold and returned to the 10-month low

Don't give up your dreams without applause. What you need is persistence, not audience.

Dollar index

On Friday (December 9), the European Central Bank decided that Yu Wei continued to pressure the euro to support the US dollar. In the New York session, the US economic data released by the United States was also very beautiful. Before the Fed’s decision next Wednesday, investors continued to make more dollars. The market is closely watching the results of the Fed's interest rate decision next week. In the short-term, the pressure on the US dollar will increase. The possibility of the Fed raising interest rates next week is almost completely digested by the market. However, as long as Fed Chair Yellen gives a hint of further interest rate hike next year in the face of brilliant data, it will stimulate the dollar to continue to rise. There are good reasons to prove that the dollar will continue to rise until next year. US interest rates are much higher than Japan and Europe, and the overall economic and policy outlook is quite different. It is unobjectionable to make more dollars in the low position.

gold

The price of gold fell to a 10-month low and was weighed down by the dollar and global stock markets. As the Fed is expected to raise interest rates this week, the gold price will record a fifth consecutive week of weekly decline. The financial market is anxiously awaiting this policy meeting scheduled for December 13th and 14th, and investors are also concerned about the so-called "lattice map." The question that the market has begun to pay attention to recently is how the Fed will further tighten monetary policy in the next year. This is all bad gold. Technically, the short-term top of the 1168 area is the same as the death of gold. Gold has no room for relaxation. The relative strength indicator RSI is below the 50-mid line, and the upward momentum is lacking. The high position is the best choice.

EUR

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) extended its printing plan to the end of 2017, plunging the euro against the dollar. Although the European Central Bank said it will cut the size of monthly bond purchases, the bond purchase plan lasts longer than the market expects, and the central bank will introduce other measures deemed to be unfavorable to the euro. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the doubts about the acceleration of inflation and economic growth in Europe. The European Central Bank lowered its inflation forecast for 2018, saying it will still be below the target of 2% a year later. The time to extend the bond purchase program was longer than most people expected, and many of the wordings were quite dovish. The inflation estimates for 2019 were very slow, the economic growth forecast was also sluggish, and the risk biased down. High altitude is the best policy.

GBP

The pound against the strong dollar fell 0.5% to 1.2566. However, the pound trade-weighted index rose 0.5%, after recording the worst single-day performance in two months. Due to weak industrial data, the parliament voted to pass the weight of the Brexit schedule of British Prime Minister Teresa. British lawmakers voted on Wednesday to support Teresa May officially launch the Brexit negotiations before the end of March. The parliament voted to support Teresa May's timetable, which disappointed those investors who hoped to leave Europe. The pound has recently been hit hard, as expectations for a vote to leave the European Union before the end of March have been made clear. The pound has also been hit by data recently. The pound sterling since the Brexit vote failed to boost British manufacturers, and industrial output in October suffered the biggest decline since 2012. The pound is strong or paused, and the day is dominated by high altitude.

oil

In terms of crude oil, last week's market focus was all on the results of the non-OPEC conference on Saturday. It is widely expected that this non-OPEC will reach a production reduction agreement, which supported the oil price to climb 1% on Friday. The arrival of the non-OPEC production reduction agreement on Saturday supported the oil price high on Monday. However, if non-OPEC member states decide to free ride and expand market share when OPEC cuts production, the discipline of OPEC members will be seriously damaged. However, in the near term, all participants should strive to support the expectation of tightening the supply of crude oil. It is safer to keep crude oil in the day.

[Overnight market review]

[European shares rose about 1% Sky broadcasts after the acquisition offer to skyrocket to offset the decline of Italian banking stocks]

The FTSE Pan-European Excellence 300 Index closed up 0.96% to 1404.04 points, up 4.84% this week. The banking index closed down 0.65%, but this week it rose 9.49%.

The European STOXX 600 index closed up 0.97% to 355.38 points, up 4.72% this week, the biggest weekly gain in 10 months; the bank price index closed down 0.69%, up 9.50% this week.

The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.22% to 11203.63 points, up 6.57% this week.

The French CAC 40 index closed up 0.60% to 4764.07 points, up 5.19% this week.

The UK's FTSE 100 index closed up 0.33% to 6954.21 points, up 3.32% this week.

The FTSE Italy Composite Stock Market Index closed down 2.25% to 9103.37 points, but it rose 1.275% this week. 

- Italy's Siena Bank closed down 10.55% to 19.50 euros, which was flat this week.

[The four major US stock indexes hit a record high, recording the largest single-week increase since Trump was elected]

The S&P 500 index closed up 13.34 points, or 0.59%, and recorded a six-day rise – the longest consecutive days since June 2014, at 2,295.53 points; this week, it rose 3.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 144.04 points, or 0.72%, to 19756.85 points; it rose 3.1% this week.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 27.14 points, or 0.50%, to 5544.50 points; this week, it rose 3.6%.

The Russell 2000 index closed up 1.71 points, or 0.12%, to 1388.07 points; this week, it rose 5.54%.

The panic index VIX closed down 7.0% to 11.75%, hitting a new low since August 19, and fell 16.8% this week, the biggest weekly decline in the last four weeks.

[10-year US Treasury yields rose to a two-year high, and the Fed’s decision to reduce phobia caused the bond market to be sold for five weeks in a row]

US 10-year benchmark bond yields rose 7.8 basis points to 2.4674%.

The yield on the 30-year US bond rose 7.2 basis points to 3.1579%.

The yield on the US dollar for the biennium rose by 2.9 basis points to 1.1369%.

The five-year US bond yield rose by 6.8 basis points to 1.8873%.

[Breakfast | December 12, 2016]

Last Friday, US stocks closed at a record high, and US bond yields rose to a one-and-a-half-year high. Gold hit a new low of $1,160 in February.

OPEC and non-OPEC countries have reached a production reduction agreement for the first time in 15 years. Oil has exceeded $55 for the first time since May 2015.

The Politburo analyzes and studies the economic work in 2017 and calls for the establishment of a “long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of real estate”, which no longer emphasizes destocking.

The media said that the Italian foreign minister was called to meet with the president or the new prime minister, the Bank of Sinai shares plunged 15% on Friday due to the European Central Bank or the refusal to raise funds.

The media said that Bao can hold a 4.25% stake in Zhengzhou Bank and is preparing to continue to increase its holdings in the near future. Bao can deny it.

The regulatory storm hit again, and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission suspended the equity investment business of Evergrande Life Insurance.

Le Shi Jia Yueting responded for the first time: the gap from the warning line is still very large.

Reminder: China's November social welfare, new RMB loans and money supply data will be announced from time to time.

【gold】

The price of gold fell to a 10-month low and was weighed down by the dollar and global stock markets. As the Fed is expected to raise interest rates this week, the gold price will record a fifth consecutive week of weekly decline. The financial market is anxiously awaiting this policy meeting scheduled for December 13th and 14th, and investors are also concerned about the so-called "lattice map." The question that the market has begun to pay attention to recently is how the Fed will further tighten monetary policy in the next year. This is all bad gold. Technically, the short-term top of the 1168 area is the same as the death of gold. Gold has no room for relaxation. The relative strength indicator RSI is below the 50-mid line, and the upward momentum is lacking. The high position is the best choice.

Strategy: Gold 1165 area is empty, stop loss is 1170, target 1160, 1153 area.

[US dollar]

On Friday (December 9), the European Central Bank decided that Yu Wei continued to pressure the euro to support the US dollar. In the New York session, the US economic data released by the United States was also very beautiful. Before the Fed’s decision next Wednesday, investors continued to make more dollars. The market is closely watching the results of the Fed's interest rate decision next week. In the short-term, the pressure on the US dollar will increase, and the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates next week is almost completely digested by the market. However, as long as Fed Chair Yellen gives a hint of further interest rate hike next year in the face of brilliant data, it will stimulate the dollar to continue to rise. There are good reasons to prove that the dollar will continue to rise until next year. US interest rates are much higher than Japan and Europe, and the overall economic and policy outlook is quite different. It is unobjectionable to make more dollars in the low position.

Strategy: USD100.90 area is much lower, stop loss is 100.60, target is 101.30, 101, 80 area. If it can't break through the high point 101.80, it is likely to call back.

【EUR】

Last Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) extended its printing plan to the end of 2017, plunging the euro against the dollar. Although the European Central Bank said it will cut the size of monthly bond purchases, the bond purchase plan lasts longer than the market expects, and the central bank will introduce other measures deemed to be unfavorable to the euro. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi highlighted the doubts about the acceleration of inflation and economic growth in Europe. The time to extend the bond purchase program was longer than most people expected, and many of the wordings were quite dovish. Technically, the 1.0590 area was weekly. There is a strong pressure on the position of the five horizontal discs. The RSI of the relative strength indicator is below the 50-middle line, and the upper action can be weak. The high altitude in this area is the best policy.

Strategy: Euro, 1.0590 area empty, stop loss 1.0640, target 1.0550, 1.0500 area.

【GBP】

The pound has recently been hit hard, as expectations for a vote to leave the European Union before the end of March have been made clear. The pound has also been hit by data recently. The pound sterling since the Brexit vote failed to boost British manufacturers, and industrial output in October suffered the biggest decline since 2012. Sterling strong or temporary break, the daytime high-altitude technology, trading in the short-term top of the 1.2630 area restricts the rebound of the pound, 1 hour relative strength indicator RSI lying on the 50-mid line, or a volatile trading pattern The trend of the bears in the day is mainly.

Strategy: £1.2630 area, stop loss 1.2680, target 1.2590, 1.2530 area.

【oil】

In terms of crude oil, last week's market focus was all on the results of the non-OPEC conference on Saturday. It is widely expected that this non-OPEC will reach a production reduction agreement, which supported the oil price to climb 1% on Friday. The arrival of the non-OPEC production reduction agreement on Saturday supported the oil price high on Monday. In the near term, all participants will work hard to support the expectation of tightening the supply of crude oil. Technically, the crude oil jumped high, and the 1-hour MACD red column continued to increase in volume. The crude oil in the day was still safer after the callback.

Strategy: There are more oil 53 areas, stop loss 52.40, target 53.80, 55.10 area.

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